Viewpoints by Erica Camilleri , at Manulife Investment Management
Based in Toronto, Erica works alongside portfolio managers and strategists on the firm’s multi-asset solutions team to assist in strategic and tactical investment decisions. She joined the team as part of a rotational program, after having completed previous rotations on the asset allocation, public equity, and global macroeconomic strategy teams. Prior to joining the firm, she worked at KPMG.
Education: B.A., University of Western Ontario
Joined the company: 2019
Began career: 2019
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Duration calculation: Three-minute macro
Managing duration risk is important for all portfolios, so we modeled duration risk in equities. We also shed some light on what tech layoffs mean (or don’t mean) for the wider economy. Finally, we explain why the Bank of Canada’s aggressive monetary tightening relative to its peers may not be enough to prevent a recession.
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Goodbye, negative-yielding debt: Three-minute macro
The era of negative-yielding debt is over, but we’re more focused on how debt issuance and rising rates will increase government debt burdens (and what that means for investors). Our eyes are also on Europe, where we’re cautiously optimistic in the short term. Finally, we’ve got some good news for bond investors.
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2023 Q1 Global Macro Outlook—The Year Ahead
We expect 2023 to be a year of two halves: H1 could be defined by a material slowdown in growth as the effects of aggressive monetary tightening kick in, while H2 could see an easing in macroeconomic conditions. Read our economic growth forecast for 2023.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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Don't be so negative: Three-minute macro
Earnings estimates have started to decline, but some sectors are doing far better than others. We also take a look at European trade dependence and how different commodities might perform in a slowing economy.
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Service, please! Three-minute macro
Inflation continues to be stubborn, but now we’re focused more on the services component, which is causing the bulk of the pain. Meanwhile, with volatility pretty much everywhere, investors find themselves without many assets to turn to because of rising asset class correlations. Finally, we take a look at the potential of the Brazilian equity market, which looks cheap.
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Q4 2022 Global Macro Outlook
Rising inflation, enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising uncertainty—hardly a strong start to 2022; however, our macroeconomic strategy team believes that global growth prospects will become brighter as the year progresses.
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Das economy: Three-minute macro
With a full-blown energy crisis, the outlook for Europe’s largest economy is dire, with many headwinds to face. Meanwhile, investors might not know it, but ESG factors are having major impacts on the global economy.
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Endemic pandemic? Three-minute macro
If COVID-19 is here to stay, how should economists incorporate it into their outlooks? This and more in this edition of three-minute macro.
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The road to net zero: Three-minute macro
COP26 has us thinking about the massive expense—but also the potentially larger economic benefits—of the transition to a green economy over the coming decades. Also top of mind is the continuing woes in global supply chains, while we’re also thinking that the Fed may have to change its tone (and its stance) in the coming months.
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