Viewpoints by Erica Camilleri, CFA, at Manulife Investment Management
Based in Toronto, Erica works alongside portfolio managers and strategists on the firm’s multi-asset solutions team to assist in strategic and tactical investment decisions. She joined the team as part of a rotational program, after having completed previous rotations on the asset allocation, public equity, and global macroeconomic strategy teams. Prior to joining the firm, she worked at KPMG. She holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a member of the CFA Society Toronto.
Education: B.A., University of Western Ontario
Joined the company: 2019
Began career: 2019
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Policy normalization in Japan: how high will the BoJ go?
The Bank of Japan's (BoJ's) continued cycle of monetary policy normalization has many policy watchers and investors wondering how high the BoJ might take interest rates.
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Known unknowns: Three-minute macro
We're in an environment ripe with significant uncertainties that reduce visibility and make it difficult to have high conviction. Banking fragilities continue and the debt ceiling drama will be harmful to growth, no matter how it resolves. Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on European equities, which we think are losing their shine.
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The signals and the noise: Three-minute macro
With such a strong job market, how can a recession possibly be in the works? Our answer lies in some troubling leading indicators for growth. At the same time, we think oil’s importance in inflation means some reprieve for the Consumer Price Index in the future. Finally, we note that central banks’ bias toward rate hikes may mean more cuts down the road.
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Duration calculation: Three-minute macro
Managing duration risk is important for all portfolios, so we modeled duration risk in equities. We also shed some light on what tech layoffs mean (or don’t mean) for the wider economy. Finally, we explain why the Bank of Canada’s aggressive monetary tightening relative to its peers may not be enough to prevent a recession.
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Goodbye, negative-yielding debt: Three-minute macro
The era of negative-yielding debt is over, but we’re more focused on how debt issuance and rising rates will increase government debt burdens (and what that means for investors). Our eyes are also on Europe, where we’re cautiously optimistic in the short term. Finally, we’ve got some good news for bond investors.
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2023 Q1 Global Macro Outlook—The Year Ahead
We expect 2023 to be a year of two halves: H1 could be defined by a material slowdown in growth as the effects of aggressive monetary tightening kick in, while H2 could see an easing in macroeconomic conditions. Read our economic growth forecast for 2023.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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Don't be so negative: Three-minute macro
Earnings estimates have started to decline, but some sectors are doing far better than others. We also take a look at European trade dependence and how different commodities might perform in a slowing economy.
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Service, please! Three-minute macro
Inflation continues to be stubborn, but now we’re focused more on the services component, which is causing the bulk of the pain. Meanwhile, with volatility pretty much everywhere, investors find themselves without many assets to turn to because of rising asset class correlations. Finally, we take a look at the potential of the Brazilian equity market, which looks cheap.
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Q4 2022 Global Macro Outlook
Rising inflation, enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising uncertainty—hardly a strong start to 2022; however, our macroeconomic strategy team believes that global growth prospects will become brighter as the year progresses.
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