Market update
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Three questions for the Fed in the lead-up to its March meeting
Fears that financial stress in the system could morph into a banking crisis have sparked speculation that the Fed might make a dovish pivot at its March meeting. We take a closer look.
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Global market turmoil—what does it mean for Canada?
Concerns about the U.S. banking sector have led to wild market swings across the globe. Looking beyond the immediate market reaction, we examine how recent developments might affect the Canadian economy and its banking sector.
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A framework for navigating a massive uncertainty shock
The closure of tech-focused lenders in the United States has left investors on tenterhooks even as policymakers work hard to contain potential spillover effects. Find out how recent events could affect the U.S. economy.
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Duration calculation: Three-minute macro
Managing duration risk is important for all portfolios, so we modeled duration risk in equities. We also shed some light on what tech layoffs mean (or don’t mean) for the wider economy. Finally, we explain why the Bank of Canada’s aggressive monetary tightening relative to its peers may not be enough to prevent a recession.
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Q4 2022 in review
The Canadian and U.S. stock market rallied in the fourth quarter. Global equities and bond markets also advanced adding a positive note to a historically severe downturn in 2022.
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How emerging-market equities’ rebound rally could extend throughout 2023
The emerging-market equity outlook has brightened after a challenging 2022. We explore the improving prospects in Mainland China, the information technology sector, and more.
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Goodbye, negative-yielding debt: Three-minute macro
The era of negative-yielding debt is over, but we’re more focused on how debt issuance and rising rates will increase government debt burdens (and what that means for investors). Our eyes are also on Europe, where we’re cautiously optimistic in the short term. Finally, we’ve got some good news for bond investors.
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2023 Q1 Global Macro Outlook—The Year Ahead
We expect 2023 to be a year of two halves: H1 could be defined by a material slowdown in growth as the effects of aggressive monetary tightening kick in, while H2 could see an easing in macroeconomic conditions. Read our economic growth forecast for 2023.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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Don't be so negative: Three-minute macro
Earnings estimates have started to decline, but some sectors are doing far better than others. We also take a look at European trade dependence and how different commodities might perform in a slowing economy.
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