Viewpoints about Market outlook
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Global economy: recession postponed, not canceled
The unexpected strength in the global economy—particularly in the United States—might have brought investors initial relief, but we believe it isn't enough to delay the inevitable. Find out why.
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Known unknowns: Three-minute macro
We're in an environment ripe with significant uncertainties that reduce visibility and make it difficult to have high conviction. Banking fragilities continue and the debt ceiling drama will be harmful to growth, no matter how it resolves. Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on European equities, which we think are losing their shine.
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Bank failures—unexpected events make investment decisions difficult
Events like the U.S. and European bank failures raise a key question. What should investors do during volatile times like these? Looking back at the last few years might give us an idea about how to discuss this with investors who may be uneasy or fearful.
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Is the Fed as dovish as the market thinks it is?
Concerns about the strength of the global financial system have led to a significant shift in market expectations of when the U.S. Federal Reserve might start lowering interest rates. Has the market been too optimistic?
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Goodbye, negative-yielding debt: Three-minute macro
The era of negative-yielding debt is over, but we’re more focused on how debt issuance and rising rates will increase government debt burdens (and what that means for investors). Our eyes are also on Europe, where we’re cautiously optimistic in the short term. Finally, we’ve got some good news for bond investors.
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2023 Q1 Global Macro Outlook—The Year Ahead
We expect 2023 to be a year of two halves: H1 could be defined by a material slowdown in growth as the effects of aggressive monetary tightening kick in, while H2 could see an easing in macroeconomic conditions. Read our economic growth forecast for 2023.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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Corrections are normal? Yes, they are.
Why invest in the equity markets? Day-to-day volatility can be unsettling to watch. Corrections happen, but they don’t last forever. This short video gives you an overview of corrections in equity markets, and compares the upturns to the downturns.
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Q4 2022 Global Macro Outlook
Rising inflation, enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising uncertainty—hardly a strong start to 2022; however, our macroeconomic strategy team believes that global growth prospects will become brighter as the year progresses.
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Trigger rates: an upcoming risk to the Canadian housing market
Rising interest rates are putting a damper on the Canadian housing market as mortgages become more expensive for potential buyers. But there's more to watch: Trigger rates in variable rate mortgages may add to housing woes. Might this be a cause for concern in the Canadian economy?
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