Viewpoints about Market outlook
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Goodbye, negative-yielding debt: Three-minute macro
The era of negative-yielding debt is over, but we’re more focused on how debt issuance and rising rates will increase government debt burdens (and what that means for investors). Our eyes are also on Europe, where we’re cautiously optimistic in the short term. Finally, we’ve got some good news for bond investors.
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2023 Q1 Global Macro Outlook—The Year Ahead
We expect 2023 to be a year of two halves: H1 could be defined by a material slowdown in growth as the effects of aggressive monetary tightening kick in, while H2 could see an easing in macroeconomic conditions. Read our economic growth forecast for 2023.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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Corrections are normal? Yes, they are.
Why invest in the equity markets? Day-to-day volatility can be unsettling to watch. Corrections happen, but they don’t last forever. This short video gives you an overview of corrections in equity markets, and compares the upturns to the downturns.
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Q4 2022 Global Macro Outlook
Rising inflation, enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising uncertainty—hardly a strong start to 2022; however, our macroeconomic strategy team believes that global growth prospects will become brighter as the year progresses.
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Trigger rates: an upcoming risk to the Canadian housing market
Rising interest rates are putting a damper on the Canadian housing market as mortgages become more expensive for potential buyers. But there's more to watch: Trigger rates in variable rate mortgages may add to housing woes. Might this be a cause for concern in the Canadian economy?
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U.S. banks’ fundamentals continue to strengthen despite the economic slowdown
The latest quarterly earnings reports from U.S. regional banks confirm the favorable investment outlook as loan growth and an improved interest-rate environment provide a tailwind for the industry.
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The Fed remains hawkish, but easing could occur in 2023
The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates by 0.75% shouldn't surprise anyone—it was widely expected; however, the bank's latest economic projections caught markets off guard. Read more.
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Time to deliver: Three-minute macro
Delivery times for products are improving, which should help ease inflation pressures. But a hawkish Bank of Canada has us keeping an eye on the housing market, while we think the European equity market is underpricing risk there.
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Corrections are painful
While the present environment has been difficult to endure, history shows that the overall return of the markets is well above inflation.
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