Viewpoints by Frances Donald, at Manulife Investment Management
Frances forecasts global macroeconomic and financial trends, analyzes the economy and capital markets for potential opportunities and risks, and serves as a thought leader both within the firm and externally. As a senior member of the firm’s multi-asset solutions team, she coordinates global macro research, assists in the team’s return forecasting process, and contributes to portfolio positioning views.
Prior to joining Manulife, Frances worked as a financial economist for Scotiabank in Toronto, and before that as a global macro analyst for Pavilion Global Markets in Montreal. Earlier in her career, she held various positions at Deloitte, Roubini Global Economics, and Bank of Canada. Frances is a frequent public speaker and regularly appears in international media.
Education: B.A., Economics, Queen’s University; M.A., Economics, New York University
Joined the company: 2016
Began career: 2008
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Q4 2022 Global Macro Outlook
Rising inflation, enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising uncertainty—hardly a strong start to 2022; however, our macroeconomic strategy team believes that global growth prospects will become brighter as the year progresses.
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Time to deliver: Three-minute macro
Delivery times for products are improving, which should help ease inflation pressures. But a hawkish Bank of Canada has us keeping an eye on the housing market, while we think the European equity market is underpricing risk there.
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Under pressure: Three-minute macro
This month, we note that the equity risk premium isn’t indicating a growth slowdown in the near future (despite our views to the contrary), while also cautioning that fewer people may be heading back to the office than we suspect many are hoping for. Finally, we look at how the Federal Reserves aggressive policy trajectory might affect Asia.
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Will the Fed's approach to interest-rate hikes trigger a U.S. recession?
Concerns about recession risks are rising amid seemingly persistent inflation and rising interest rates. Find out to what extent these fears are warranted.
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Rising rates and real estate: Three-minute macro
A hawkish BoC should have Canadian homeowners on watch as interest-rate rises will likely eat into their purchasing power. We also break down why green energy stocks are underperforming this year and why stagflation is such a scary word.
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Show them the money: Three-minute macro
Corporate profits are surging, but workers aren’t really sharing in this profit boom—and that’s made even worse by rising prices. Our eyes are also on inventory levels that are building, and which could be a danger in the wake of rising interest rates.
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No shortage of risks: Three-minute macro
We examine why the Russian-Ukraine conflict, persistently high inflation, and the Fed’s long-awaited rate hike have investors scared, and detail how food prices are increasing at the fastest rate in four decades. This and more in this edition of Three-minute macro.
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Incorporating the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a global macro outlook
For the global economy, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its repercussions amount to a stagflationary shock. We assess the situation's impact on our medium-term macro outlook.
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Why did the BoC decide against raising rates in January?
The BoC left interest rates unchanged at 0.25% at its meeting on January 26. The central bank’s decision defied market expectations and caught many investors off guard.
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Endemic pandemic? Three-minute macro
If COVID-19 is here to stay, how should economists incorporate it into their outlooks? This and more in this edition of three-minute macro.
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