Viewpoints by Frances Donald, at Manulife Investment Management
Frances was responsible for forecasting global macroeconomic and financial trends, analyzing the economy and capital markets for potential opportunities and risks, and serving as a thought leader both within the firm and externally. As a senior member of the asset allocation team, she coordinated global macro research, assisted in the team’s return forecasts, and contributed to portfolio positioning views.
Prior to joining Manulife, Frances worked as a financial economist for Scotiabank in Toronto and, before that, as a global macro analyst for Pavilion Global Markets in Montreal. Earlier in her career, she held various positions at Deloitte, Roubini Global Economics, and Bank of Canada. She’s a frequent public speaker and regularly appears in international media, including Bloomberg and CNBC.
- Education: M.A., Economics, New York University; B.A., Economics, Queen’s University
- Joined the company: 2016
- Began career: 2008
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Five Macroeconomic Themes For 2024
A new economy rising: we dive into the five major forces that will drive global economies and markets in 2024. Come back to this page for updates, insight, and resources to help guide you throughout the year.
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Data, data, everywhere: Three-minute macro
Data is our word of the month. Despite some surprising signs of economic resilience in the United States, our leading indicators still have us convinced a recession is on the way. Meanwhile, we don’t think the strong unemployment rate is a perfectly accurate description of the current (and future) labor market. Finally, the S&P 500 Index is looking strong so far this year, but we dive into how much of that performance is due to the AI craze.
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Global economy: recession postponed, not canceled
The unexpected strength in the global economy—particularly in the United States—might have brought investors initial relief, but we believe it isn't enough to delay the inevitable. Find out why.
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Beyond the Fed’s hawkish “pause”: three macro elements to consider
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its June meeting. But looking deeper, there are implications for investors.
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The Bank of Canada “unpauses”—what’s next?
After just a brief moment on the sidelines, the Bank of Canada has announced yet another 25-basis point rate hike. Our experts offer their take on what this means for the economy. Read more.
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Known unknowns: Three-minute macro
We're in an environment ripe with significant uncertainties that reduce visibility and make it difficult to have high conviction. Banking fragilities continue and the debt ceiling drama will be harmful to growth, no matter how it resolves. Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on European equities, which we think are losing their shine.
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The signals and the noise: Three-minute macro
With such a strong job market, how can a recession possibly be in the works? Our answer lies in some troubling leading indicators for growth. At the same time, we think oil’s importance in inflation means some reprieve for the Consumer Price Index in the future. Finally, we note that central banks’ bias toward rate hikes may mean more cuts down the road.
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Is the Fed as dovish as the market thinks it is?
Concerns about the strength of the global financial system have led to a significant shift in market expectations of when the U.S. Federal Reserve might start lowering interest rates. Has the market been too optimistic?
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Three questions for the Fed in the lead-up to its March meeting
Fears that financial stress in the system could morph into a banking crisis have sparked speculation that the Fed might make a dovish pivot at its March meeting. We take a closer look.
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A framework for navigating a massive uncertainty shock
The closure of tech-focused lenders in the United States has left investors on tenterhooks even as policymakers work hard to contain potential spillover effects. Find out how recent events could affect the U.S. economy.
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