Viewpoints about Interest rates
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Midyear 2025 global macro outlook: what’s changed and what hasn’t
What a difference six months can make. More forceful-than-expected government policy decisions have overtaken some of our early 2025 views, but others have only been validated and reinforced.
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What is stagflation, and how likely is it?
Tariff-related trade tensions have reignited worries about stagflation, a challenging economic brew of high inflation, weak growth, and high unemployment. Stagflation can lead to weakness in both equity and fixed-income markets, and is challenging for central banks to address.
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Fed trims rates—what next?
The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off the rate-cutting cycle with a 50 basis-point rate cut and signals that there could be more on the way before year end. We take a closer look at what this could mean investors.
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With Fed easing potentially on hold, what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
Expectations for a Fed pivot have been pushed back due to persistent inflation and a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy. We explore why high-quality intermediate fixed income still presents a compelling opportunity for investors even if rate cuts don't materialize any time soon.
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Managing interest-rate risk in 2024 and beyond
In the current macroeconomic environment, where slowing growth and cooling inflation are conducive to monetary easing, we're finding opportunities to tactically embrace interest-rate risk. We explain why we believe geographical diversification and diligently selecting where that duration comes from will be particularly important this year and beyond.
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An LP’s guide to a reckoning in private equity
A reckoning is coming amid a market sea change. Some private equity firms will adapt and flourish—others won’t. Two trends may help alert LPs discern the difference.
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Beyond the Fed’s hawkish “pause”: three macro elements to consider
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its June meeting. But looking deeper, there are implications for investors.
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The Bank of Canada “unpauses”—what’s next?
After just a brief moment on the sidelines, the Bank of Canada has announced yet another 25-basis point rate hike. Our experts offer their take on what this means for the economy. Read more.
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Bank on it: the state of Canadian financial institutions in the wake of bank failures abroad
The financial community was rocked by a string of bank failures in March. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States could have been seen as isolated events, given their significant ties to the tech community that had seen a major downturn in recent months. But investors were rattled even further when Credit Suisse, one of the 30 global systemically important banks, was acquired by rival UBS to prevent the former’s collapse, followed weeks later by the collapse of First Republic Bank, which became the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The banking community was put on notice, including in Canada, where banks play a huge role in our economy.
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The signals and the noise: Three-minute macro
With such a strong job market, how can a recession possibly be in the works? Our answer lies in some troubling leading indicators for growth. At the same time, we think oil’s importance in inflation means some reprieve for the Consumer Price Index in the future. Finally, we note that central banks’ bias toward rate hikes may mean more cuts down the road.
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