Viewpoints about Interest rates
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An LP’s guide to a reckoning in private equity
A reckoning is coming amid a market sea change. Some private equity firms will adapt and flourish—others won’t. Two trends may help alert LPs discern the difference.
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Beyond the Fed’s hawkish “pause”: three macro elements to consider
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its June meeting. But looking deeper, there are implications for investors.
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The Bank of Canada “unpauses”—what’s next?
After just a brief moment on the sidelines, the Bank of Canada has announced yet another 25-basis point rate hike. Our experts offer their take on what this means for the economy. Read more.
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Bank on it: the state of Canadian financial institutions in the wake of bank failures abroad
The financial community was rocked by a string of bank failures in March. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States could have been seen as isolated events, given their significant ties to the tech community that had seen a major downturn in recent months. But investors were rattled even further when Credit Suisse, one of the 30 global systemically important banks, was acquired by rival UBS to prevent the former’s collapse, followed weeks later by the collapse of First Republic Bank, which became the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The banking community was put on notice, including in Canada, where banks play a huge role in our economy.
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The signals and the noise: Three-minute macro
With such a strong job market, how can a recession possibly be in the works? Our answer lies in some troubling leading indicators for growth. At the same time, we think oil’s importance in inflation means some reprieve for the Consumer Price Index in the future. Finally, we note that central banks’ bias toward rate hikes may mean more cuts down the road.
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The bar to stop hiking is probably lower than the bar to cut rates
Concerns about financial stability may not have stopped the Fed from raising rates; however, there's a growing sense that we're now closer to—if not already at—the end of the U.S. rate-hike cycle.
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Budget 2023: health care, clean energy…and deficits
The Canadian federal government released its 2023 budget, outlining the policy priorities for the next year onward. See how the Canadian federal government is addressing key issues in a challenging economic context.
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Regional bank failures create potential risks and opportunities for investors
The failure of several banking entities in just a few days has spurred extraordinary measures from U.S. regulators, but investors remain skittish. Read more on how these events shape our outlook for the banking industry.
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Assessing the contagion risk from ongoing banking concerns to Asia
Trouble in the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic has sparked fears of broader contagion. To what extent will these developments affect Asia's economies? Read more.
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Three questions for the Fed in the lead-up to its March meeting
Fears that financial stress in the system could morph into a banking crisis have sparked speculation that the Fed might make a dovish pivot at its March meeting. We take a closer look.
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